1. Trump imposes 50% tax on Brazil, trade war may flare up again
US President Donald Trump announced the 50% tariff on goods from Brazil to “protect domestic industries” from accusations of dumping from Brasilia. This move is seen by observers as the start of a new cycle of trade tensions, with a chain effect on developing markets.
2. Israel may annex part of Gaza Strip
The Israeli government is considering annexing “controlled” areas in Gaza, a move that has been strongly condemned by many countries in the Middle East. Energy markets reacted immediately: oil surged and gold returned to its safe-haven role as the risk of regional conflict increased.
3. US – Russia apply risky “escalate to cool down” strategy
Washington is increasing pressure on Moscow to force Russia to make concessions at the negotiating table. However, many experts warn that this "pressure to back down" strategy could spiral out of control, increasing global instability.
4. Russia blockades Kiev skies with UAVs and cruise missiles
The Russian military launched one of its fiercest attacks on the Ukrainian capital with a barrage of suicide drones and cruise missiles. Kiev recorded at least 15 large explosions, raising concerns of a full-scale escalation of the conflict.
5. China vows to defend energy sovereignty amid US pressure
China’s foreign ministry said it would take “no concessions” if its oil and gas interests were harmed. Beijing responded to new tariffs from the US, raising the risk of disruption to the global energy supply chain.
6. US stocks rise then quickly reverse
The US market opened the session in the green thanks to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged. However, pressure from geopolitical information caused the sentiment to quickly reverse. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes closed in the red.
Market Forecast Today:
- USD rose slightly after the core PCE index beat expectations, reinforcing the case for the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
- Yellow eased due to pressure from a strong dollar and expectations of less easing monetary policy.
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