Middle East instability, Iran resumes nuclear talks, Japan falls into political crisis
On July 21, 2025, the world witnessed a series of major geopolitical changes that could have profound effects on global markets. Hamas threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire negotiations, Iran unexpectedly announced the resumption of nuclear negotiations, while Japan fell into a "ruling minority" position after the election.
Hamas warns of withdrawal from ceasefire talks with Israel
Hamas has announced that it is considering withdrawing from ceasefire talks with Israel after several rounds of negotiations have yielded no clear results. The situation in the Gaza Strip continues to escalate as mediators fail to find common ground. The risk of renewed fighting is keeping investors and analysts on their toes.
Iran agrees to restart nuclear talks with Europe
Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed that it will hold a new round of talks with representatives of the E3 group (UK, France, Germany) on November 25 in Istanbul. The talks will focus on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal, including nuclear control provisions and lifting economic sanctions. This is a positive signal amid prolonged nuclear tensions.
Japan falls into minority in both houses of parliament
Following the Upper House elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito Party in Japan has officially lost control of both the Lower House and Upper House. Along with the strong volatility of the Yen, Japanese financial markets are facing concerns about fiscal risks and the impact of US-Japan tariff negotiations.
Some experts say Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will face pressure to resign if he cannot form a new coalition in the near future.
US economic situation and global policy developments
According to data from CME “Fed Watch”, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing for an aggressive trade policy, putting new pressure on US-China relations. Two scenarios show that Mr. Trump may meet directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 2025 APEC summit.
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