President Trump continues to tighten global tariffs
July 16, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced to be published “Tax Letter” of the Week, warns of tariffs on 10% for small countries. This is part of a new global trade strategy, aimed at "protecting American interests".
In addition, Mr. Trump also announced the possibility of withdraw the US from the IEA (International Energy Agency), claiming that the organization is “biased toward green transition” and harms traditional American industries.
Iran nuclear deal: US – EU enter final stretch
On the same day, the US and EU simultaneously placed Deadline end of August to achieve Iran nuclear deal. If negotiations fail, the mechanism “fast recovery” will be activated, meaning old sanctions could return within weeks.
Analysts are concerned that if the deal fails, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will flare up again, strongly affecting oil prices and the global supply chain.
Fed and ECB keep monetary policy unchanged
Monetary policymakers are taking a cautious stance:
- Collins (Fed): US inflation remains around 3%, so keep interest rate instead of increasing. However, the New tariffs will increase consumer costs.
- Nagel (ECB): eurozone interest rates needed stable, despite pressure from the trade war and energy prices.
Gold price today: Slight decrease due to strong USD
After political upheaval, gold price today reduce 3,330 USD/oz, held back by a strong dollar and data US CPI higher than expected.
However, many experts say that if the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, gold still has a chance to increase again in the medium and long term.
USD rises sharply – Currencies of other countries under pressure
USD index up 0,55%, up to level 98,616, pushing other major coins like EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF The greenback's strength is putting pressure on many export-dependent economies.
Crude oil prices fall on unexpected inventory increase
Oil market continues to correct downward:
- WTI: still 66.52 USD/barrel
- Brent: still 68.71 USD/barrel
The main reason is due to reporting. US API shows crude oil inventories rising 839,000 barrels, contrary to the forecast of a decrease.
Trump announces huge investment and changes to pension fund policy
In a surprise move, President Trump announced an investment package 92 billion USD into the field AI – energy, in the state Pennsylvania, partnering with major corporations like Google and Blackstone.
At the same time, he prepared to issue Executive order allows US pension funds to invest in private assets, to expand market capital.
US reduces military aid – Maintains restraint on Russia
- America declares no long-range missiles to Ukraine
- Warning do not attack Moscow, to avoid escalating the conflict with Russia.
In addition, the US also withdraw 2,000 National Guard troops from Los Angeles, after the immigration situation is brought under control again.
Asia – Middle East: Policy changes and tensions
- Korea propose Taxing Crypto Profits and Rental Income, while expanding the foreign exchange market.
- Japan Slight recovery thanks to semiconductor industry, however Cars still under pressure from US tariffs.
- Syria:The conflict in Sweden shows no signs of abating.
- Israel Houthi military attack, while UAE and Iran phone call to ease tension.
Forecast: Fed keeps interest rates, gold – BTC may rise
According to the Fed Watch tool:
- Probability of rate hold in July: 97,4%
- Possibility of 25bps interest rate cut in September: 53,5%
Analysts say that if loose monetary policy continues, along with risks from the trade war, both Yellow and Bitcoin will continue to increase in price in the medium to long term.
Suggested investment strategy
- Yellow: Can wait to buy on correction, as still in uptrend if Fed is dovish.
- Crypto: Bitcoin should be bought during correction, avoid FOMO at high price zone.
- Stock: Be careful if the trade war spreads.
- Forex: USD is strong, but could weaken if next month's CPI is lower than expected.
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