Gold price exceeds 3,355 USD, Middle East instability, Fed under pressure
In the morning trading session on July 2, 2025, Spot gold price skyrocketed to $3,355/oz, the highest level in more than a week. The main driver came from proposed tax cuts and spending increases President Trump's comments – have raised market fears of a return to inflation, while boosting safe-haven demand for gold.
At the same time, Fed expected to cut interest rates in September increased significantly, causing USD weakened sharply, losing its defensive role in the short term. Expansionary fiscal policy + potential loose monetary policy = perfect recipe for gold to accelerate.
Middle East: Tensions Still Not Cooling Down
- President Trump confirmed: Israel agrees to 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, but Hamas has yet to respond clearly.
- Meanwhile, Missiles from Yemen intercepted by Israel, protests broke out in Tel Aviv demanding an end to the conflict.
→ The initial “peaceful” signals are still not enough to reassure the market.
Iran & the Strait of Hormuz: Risk of Supply Chain Disruption
US intelligence revealed: Iran was preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route for global oil transport.
Although it hasn't happened yet, the news alone is enough to cause hedge funds to start moving assets – fearing that oil prices could swing wildly.
Thailand: Prolonged political instability, weak baht
- Thai Prime Minister Suspended, the divided cabinet makes investors wary of policy risks.
- The baht fell., Commerzbank and MUFG warn of fiscal risks – economic growth is seriously threatened.
→ If prolonged, foreign capital may withdraw from ASEAN.
Recommended trading strategy today:
- Yellow: Watch the $3,300–$3,350/oz zone. Buy if USD remains weak.
- Foreign exchange: USD/JPY and USD/THB may present short term opportunities.
- Share: Prioritize consumer groups – energy. Avoid banks and technology in the short term.
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