Hot geopolitical scene: Israel – Iran escalates
- New situation: The network of airstrikes between Israel and Iran continued over the weekend, with no signs of abating.
- Strategic risks: Investors are worried about the possibility of an Iran blockade. Strait of Hormuz, seriously affecting oil exports
- Market reaction:
- Yellow: Price increased for the fourth consecutive session, reaching a nearly 2-month high (~3,442 USD/ounce), heading towards the resistance level of 3,500 USD.
- Brent Oil up 2.3% ($75.93), WTI increased by 2.2% (74.60 USD), at times jumping more than 4 USD/barrel.
Money Market & Safe Haven Assets
- USD Slight increase: trading around 144 JPY and 0.811 CHF thanks to safe-haven flows.
- EUR/USD fluctuating at 1.155–1.16, facing pressure to re-test resistance at 1.1569 and strong reaction from geopolitical fluctuations
- Weekly Forecast:
- Strength remains tilted towards the USD long term.
- Policy meetings from the Fed (June 18), the Bank of Japan, the UK, Switzerland... will be the highlights.
Asian stock market
- Mixed developments (Nikkei +0.9%, Kospi +0.24%, Hang Seng –0.19%, Shanghai –0.23%) reflects cautious investor sentiment
- In Vietnam, VN-Index increased by nearly 0.9% in the morning, thanks to bottom-fishing capital flows and strong net transactions from foreign investors (~342 billion VND)
Technical view & forecast this week
- EUR/USD likely to fluctuate strongly, continue to test resistance 1.1569–1.16, with safe-haven flows pushing USD to counterattack slightly
- USD/JPY is fluctuating around 144‑145, taking reference at support 144 JPY.
- GBP/USD, AUD/USD has side‑ways expression, while USD/MXN towards 19.00 – 19.40
Quick Summary
| Element | Main impact |
|---|---|
| Geopolitics | Key drivers of flows into gold, oil and USD |
| Yellow | Nearly $3,442 – room for $3,500 |
| Oil | Brent ~76 USD, WTI ~75 USD – continue to be sensitive to Middle East instability |
| USD | Maintain safe haven role, wait for Fed reassurance |
| Forex | Policy meetings – the most important factor of the week |
| Stock | Volatile, still dominated by geopolitical risks |
Strategy for Trader
- Gold & Oil: watch for peak price, can test resistance, take partial profit or continue to hold if conflict continues to escalate.
- Forex: focus on USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD pairs – apply breakout strategy according to data from Fed and BoJ.
- Asian Stocks – Vietnam: You can consider opening a short-term position when the market drops deeply thanks to bottom-fishing cash flow, but be especially cautious when the G7 results and US trade policy moves affect it.
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