President Trump changes stance: Sends missiles to Ukraine
July 11, US President Donald Trump first time use presidential power to direct send weapons to Ukraine, value close to 300 million USD. The aid package may include medium-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems – contrary to the “no aid to Ukraine” stance he declared during the election campaign.
This is considered biggest policy turning point since Mr Trump's re-election, and also a strong signal sent to both NATO and the Kremlin.
In addition, Mr. Trump revealed a new plan: send weapons to NATO, and let NATO pay transfer back to Ukraine – to share costs and responsibilities among allies.
Trump imposes heavy tariffs on allies: Canada - Vietnam - Brazil are heavily affected
Canada: Taxed 35%
President Trump announces tariffs 35% loaded goods from Canada, marking an escalation of trade tensions with a traditional ally. This is the highest tariff on Canada since 1989.
Vietnam: "Ambushed" at the last minute
According to American media, the Vietnamese side not yet approved new trade deal, by Trump Unexpectedly raised tax from 11% to 20%, and threatened to impose 40% if “transfer” was detected. A negotiating source revealed:
“Trump has ambushed everyone.”
Show both sides not officially signed, causing great concern for Vietnamese exporters.
Brazil: Risk of losing beef market
Trump threatens to impose tariffs 50% with goods from Brazil, including beef – a major import item into the US. This could push up hamburger prices in the US skyrocket, as domestic production is falling due to drought and disease from the Mexican border.
In response, Brazilian President Lula declare:
- Brazil can live without America.
- Will retaliatory tariffs 50% if the US imposes taxes first.
- Will bring the case to light WTO and find new business partners, reduce dependence on USD.
EU and the Middle East: Increasing pressure on Israel
EU threatens to suspend trade deal with Israel
The European Union is considering suspending Association Agreement with Israel, due to human rights violations in Gaza. If passed, Israeli goods could lose preferential access to the EU market.
“We will consider suspending the entire trade chapter if necessary,” an EU official said.
Israel – Hamas talks: Deadlock
Umbrella Israel and Hamas launched a new round of negotiations at Doha (Qatar) from 6/7, but until now no breakthrough. Israel demands Hamas complete disarming, otherwise will keep attacking.
Meanwhile, European Union and Israel has achieved one humanitarian agreement, allowing increased aid into the Gaza Strip – to avoid a humanitarian crisis.
Iran – Russia – Ukraine: Nuclear bells and hopeless negotiations
Israel accuses Iran of holding weapons-grade uranium
An Israeli official revealed that Iran still retains a part of the near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, despite being hit by US-Israeli airstrikes last month. Prime Minister Netanyahu has prepared a plan "unilateral action", while US intelligence said no evidence of uranium weaponization.
Russia waits for negotiations, Ukraine delays
Russia declares readiness to negotiate, but Ukraine said it could not resume round 3 due to The prisoner exchange issue is not yet complete.Meanwhile, Mr. Trump said he would make important statement about Russia on Monday, and expect Senate passes new sanctions bill.
The US economy and the Fed's response
San Francisco Fed President: Interest Rate Cuts Possible Twice
Grandma Mary Daly assume that:
- The impact of tariffs may be not too serious.
- The Fed can still cut interest rates twice this year, if inflation approaches the 2% target.
- The market should “flexible expectations”, may cut interest rates in autumn.
Data from CME Fed Watch:
- 92.8% likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July
- 65.4% likely to decrease 25 points in September
Gold and financial market: Fierce tug of war
- World gold price trading around 3,326 USD/oz, up slightly on global trade war concerns.
- However, USD increased strongly, coupled with high bond yields put downward pressure on prices.
- Investors are "holding their breath" waiting US CPI index July 15 – key factor in determining the direction of the Fed and gold.
Suggested strategy
President Trump is rewriting the entire global game: Providing military aid, "taxing friends", and forcing trade partners to follow one's will.
🎯 Strategies Investors Should Consider:
- Follow up gold price, wait for the buying point when the Fed is "dove".
- Surf USD if trade tensions widen.
- Stay away from tax-sensitive stocks (tech, electric vehicles), favor groups consumer – defense.
- Consider volatility from Brazil, Vietnam, EU and Middle East markets.
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