Gold, oil, stocks fluctuate strongly because of Trump and the Middle East
Trump has unleashed both military and monetary policy. The Middle East is on fire, and the Fed is at risk of sudden changes. The market is entering a new turbulence zone – investors need to monitor every move closely.
Trump confirms destruction of Iran nuclear facility – tensions escalate
On the evening of June 29, US President Donald Trump officially announced that the US had destroyed Iran's three strategic nuclear facilities, including the Fordow center – a hotbed of Tehran’s uranium enrichment program. He said:
“Now there is only a pile of rubble left.”
However, the Iranian side deny serious damage, and US intelligence revealed that Iranian officials believe The impact is lower than originally expected..
This conflicting information caused the market to react cautiously – but Geopolitical risks in the region remain elevated., especially if Iran retaliates.
Israel bombs Gaza – campaign could expand
Along with US-Iran tensions, The Israeli army has attacked many areas in the Gaza Strip., killing at least 21 Palestinians. A total evacuation of Gaza City has been ordered, raising concerns a large-scale offensive campaign is underway.
The Middle East is like a “time bomb”, and any new developments could triggering a major wave of volatility in financial markets.
Trump puts pressure on Fed – policy reversal likely to increase
Not only stopping at security issues, President Trump also put public pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) when assuming Interest rates should fall to 1–2%, while criticizing Chairman Jerome Powell as “terrible.”
Although Mr. Powell's term is until May 2026, Trump hinting at an early replacement, suggesting a potential risk to the independence of US monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch tool:
- Probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.9%
- Probability of interest rate cut in September increased to 76%
How did global financial assets react?
1. Gold
- Trading around the mark 3,267 USD/oz
- Affected by the rising "risk-on" sentiment
- However, if the Fed signals easing, gold could recover quickly.
2. WTI Oil
- Opening price slightly down 64.39 USD/barrel
- Main reason: OPEC+ news increase production by 411,000 barrels/day from August
3. US stocks
- Dow Jones futures up 0.28%
- The slight increase shows the market is closely watching monetary policy and Middle East tensions.
Suggested investment strategy
🔹 Yellow: Watch the price range of 3,250 - 3,300 USD/oz. Can wait to buy if the Fed signals easing or geopolitical risks escalate.
🔹 Stock: Prioritize defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples. Limit interest-rate sensitive financial and technology groups.
🔹 Foreign exchange: USD is weakening – can watch USD/JPY and USD/CNH for short term trading opportunities.
Global financial markets are in a state of “testing the waters” before a series of major fluctuations from geopolitics to monetary policy. Every statement from Trump or every military strike could be a catalyst for a rapid reversal in asset prices.
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